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ブラジル大統領、追放の危機 － 連立与党の離脱宣言 ブラジルは、経済的および政治的危機に陥っている。経済的には、中国経済減速の 影響が大きい。政治的には、国営石油会社ペトロブラスをめぐるスキャンダルが支配的な 政治家を多数巻き込んでいることが大きい。前大統領はその件で司法沙汰になっており、その 忠実な部下である現在の女性大統領は、それを避けるために前大統領を大臣に任命するなど の手段を講じたりしていた。 しかし、連立与党の最大の政党が離脱を宣言したことで、議会での弾劾決議が成立する 可能性が格段に高まることになった。５月にも、現大統領は半年間、職務を追われ、 副大統領が暫定政権を担当する可能性が高くなったとみられている。 大統領側は、「これはクーデターで、ブラジルで３０年間続いてきた民主主義の 崩壊の危機だ」との声明を発表している。 （８０年代、ブラジルをはじめ多くの中南米諸国はオイル・ショックの影響で 経済危機を迎え、多額の債務問題で苦しんでいた。そこからの脱出は９０年代 になってから政策的な成功もあり可能となった。そして２１世紀に入ると、中国からの 資源重要の波にも乗り、（ライバルのアルゼンチンはデフォルトを引き起こしたのだが） BRICSの一員として脚光を浴びるに至った・・・。） ＊＊＊ ３月の初め、反大統領の抗議デモが１００万人以上の参加者を得て行われており、 国民のあいだの政治不信は非常な高まりをみせている昨今のブラジルである。 BRICSの一員としてつい最近まで脚光を浴びていたブラジルだが、いまはそうした 声は聞かれなくなっている。 （ワールドカップのさいの建設などをめぐっても黒い話が多数起きていたことが 想起される。） まもなくオリンピックが開催される国の現在の状況である。 ＊＊＊ Brazil president closer to impeachment as coalition partner quits Dilma Rousseff’s hopes of seeing out her four-year term took a major hit when the PMDB voted to leave the governing alliance: ‘This is her D-Day’ says analyst Dilma Rousseff’s coalition partner PMDB to leave government – video Jonathan Watts in São Paulo Tuesday 29 March 2016 19.33 BSTLast modified on Wednesday 30 March 201603.50 BST • President Dilma Rousseff’s hopes of seeing out her term of office have received a potentially fatal blow after the biggest party in the Brazilian congress voted to abandon her ruling coalition. The vote by the Brazilian Democratic Movement party (or PMDB) could trigger a defection from Rousseff’s coalition by other smaller parties, and greatly increase the prospect that she will lose an impeachment vote in the lower house next month and be suspended from office. To cries of “Workers party out!” and “Onward Brazil!”, PMDB leaders announced their decision to break up the coalition. “We’re going to try to change the country. The economic and social crisis is very serious,” senator Romero Juca, the PMDB’s first vice-president, told a party meeting in the capital Brasilia. Rousseff now leads a fragile minority government. Senior officials in the governing Workers party insist the president can still be saved from what they say is a coup attempt against an elected leader who still has more than half of her four-year mandate to serve. Their hopes depend on securing support from individual members of the PMDB, which is a far from united party. Three PMDB ministers have indicated they may defy orders to quit the cabinet by 12 April. But government efforts to shore up support look increasingly desperate after the PMDB – which has 68 of the 513 seats in the lower house – decided to leave an alliance that has propped up the government for more than 13 years. David Fleischer, political science professor at the University of Brasília, said the defection would create a domino effect that is likely to topple Rousseff. “This is her D-Day,” he said. “[Now the PMDB has left] the possibility of her impeachment increases to 90%.” The president’s opponents will now have an increased majority on the impeachment committee which could give the go-ahead for a full congressional vote, most likely on 17 April, Fleischer said. The departure of the PMDB marks a new low in a protracted political crisis triggered by efforts to unseat Rousseff following the Operation Lava Jato (Car Wash) revelations of money laundering, price fixing and bribery at the state-run oil company, Petrobras. Rousseff’s enemies are attempting to launch impeachment proceedings on several grounds, including ongoing investigations into alleged budget irregularities and campaign finance violations. Dilma Rousseff defiant amid calls for resignation over corruption scandal Read more The president has insisted there is no legal basis for impeachment, telling reporters last week that any attempt to remove her from power without legal justification would represent a “coup”. The political trench warfare has paralysed decision making in Brasília, worsening an economy that is deep in recession and heightening public anger. More than a million protesters took to the streets earlier this month in a huge anti-government demonstration. If 342 of the 513 deputies approve, the impeachment process would move to the senate and Rousseff would be suspended for 180 days while Brazil’s vice-president, Michel Temer – leader of the PMDB – would become interim head of state. A final decision on whether to formally remove her from office would then be taken sometime around October. Senator Aecio Neves, leader of the opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party (or PSDM), said he and the leaders of five other opposition parties were ready to back a transitional government led by Temer. “Rousseff’s government is finished. The departure of the PMDB is the last nail in the coffin of a dying government,” said Neves, who narrowly lost to Rousseff in the 2014 election. Carlos Pereira, a political scientist at the Brazilian School of Administration, concurred that the chances of the president’s removal have increased considerably. “The exit of PMDB will fatally encourage other smaller parties to abandon the coalition, bringing the Dilma government to a state of political isolation,” he said, predicting the vice-president would reap the benefits ahead of the next election in 2018. “The potential Temer government would be a sort of government of national salvation in the sense that virtually all the political forces will most likely support him. It will be a transitional government and so will have a narrow margin for error.” A party of influence brokers rather than ideologues, the PMDB has steadily increased its presence in the government even as it has wavered in its support. Until Monday, it held seven ministerial posts as well as the vice-presidency. But it has long been divided about its loyalties to the administration. Since last year, PMDB member and lower house speaker Eduardo Cunha has openly plotted against Rousseff. In December, he gave the green light to impeachment proceedings based on accusations that the government window-dressed its accounts before the last election. The party is now pushing to secure power for itself, though it is unlikely to be any less vulnerable to corruption allegations. Cunha and other senior PMDB figures have been implicated, along with politicians of all stripes, in the Petrobras scandal. PMDB defections from the ruling camp have increased steadily. The most recent to go was the tourism minister, Henrique Eduardo Alves, who quit on Monday. Even before Tuesday’s vote, domestic newspapers carried leaks of the policy agenda, including welfare cuts, that the PMDB plans to carry out if it takes power. The consequences and repercussions of such a move could be tumultuous. Political tensions are already high. None of the potential replacements for Rousseff have clean hands. Senior Workers party officials say the impeachment charges are trumped up by opponents who were unable to accept election defeat. Lula says 'Big Brother' bribery inquiry is turning Brazil politics into reality TV Read more Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the attempt to unseat Rousseff was a coup, similar to those used in recent years against leaders in Paraguay and Honduras. He warned on Monday that Brazil’s 31-year-old democracy was at risk. “It seems to me the opposition have tried to make it impossible for her to govern Brazil,” he said. “They should allow her to have her time to rule this country. Let voters be the judges at the end of her term. If she doesn’t do well, we will respect the decision of electorate.” If Rousseff is removed, she would not be the first elected Brazilian president to be forced from office. Fernando Collor de Mello resigned in 1992 in the midst of an impeachment fight he appeared certain to lose. • |
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