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アメリカ、イラン核合意から離脱 トランプは、2015年に締結されたイラン核合意からの撤退を表明した。この合意は、EU、ロシア、中国、イラン、そしてアメリカが合意して締結されたものである。 この記事にもあるように、イランはこの合意により決められたことを確実に実行してきていることが、それを監視する機関が公式に説明してきている。にもかかわらず、トランプは、一方的にイランのこれら実施実績をまったく無視する（これはトランプのいつも行っている手法である。(都合の悪い) 事実にはまったく耳を傾けることがない。「イランは最悪のテロリスト国家であり、核疑惑のただなかにある」という主張を繰り返してきている。もちろん国連決議も無視しており、きわめて孤立主義的立場をとっている。 この１カ月のあいだに、メルケルやマクロン、そしてイギリスからは外相が訪米し、トランプのこの危険な離脱を説得しようとしたが、まったく無駄に終わることになった。EUはこの合意を守り抜く決意を表明している。が、トランプは、「今後イランにたいし、最も厳しい経済制裁を実施する。イランに協力する企業は今後数カ月の猶予期間の後、まだイランと商取引を行う場合、これらの企業にも経済制裁は適用される」と同時に発表しているから、今後、非常に大きな波乱が生じることは必至である。 ロシアは、中東政策においてイランの側に明示的に立っている。アサド体制を支えることはプーチンの基本的中東政策であり、それはシーア派の領袖イランも同様であるし、レバノンのヒズボラを支えているのもイランである。トランプのこの行動にプーチン・ロシアがどのように対応するのかが大きな注目点になる。 このトランプの宣言によって、すでに大きな動きが出ている。直前に、イスラエルのネタニヤフは、イランがいかに核開発を進めているのかを自国の諜報機関が調べたものを見せながらイラン核合意を批判する行動に出たが、トランプはそれをそのまま真に受けた発言を行っている（が、ネタニヤフの調査なるものは、イラン核合意前のものなのである）。 （そもそも、イスラエルは核保有国であるというのが広く知られている事実である国であることも、念頭においておく必要がある。かつて、イラクが核開発をしている、としてイスラエルはフセイン・イラクの核施設建設現場を爆撃したという歴史もある。） ネタニヤフはトランプの離脱発言を大いに歓迎する声明を発表している。と同時に、シリア側からゴラン高原に配備されているイスラエル軍にたいしロケット弾が撃ち込まれた旨を、イスラエル軍は報道している。そしてそれにたいする報復措置を直ちにとることまで表明している。事態はすでに火を吹いている。 地政学的に見ると、トランプ陣営は、サウジ、イスラエル、UAEとのあいだの共闘という行動を明確にとっている。こうした行動にたいし、ロシアは明確に反対側に位置することになる（中国がどのような行動をとるのかは、いまのところ不明である。中立的スタンスかもしれない）。EUとの亀裂は明確であるが、EU自体がかつてのような統合性を欠いた状況にあるため、今後の経済制裁遂行問題の過程で大きな緊張が走ることも避けられないであろう。 折しも、イスラエルにあるアメリカ大使館をエルサレムに移す、という行動をアメリカはとってきたが、それが完成したとのことで、娘婿ジェラードと娘イヴァンカを祈念式典に参加させるということが決まっており、彼らは現地に向かっているところである。この問題は、イラン問題とは別個の、かつてからの深刻な中東問題であるが、かつてと異なるのは、アラブ側が中東戦争の経緯のなかで分裂してしまい、かつてナセルをリーダーとしたアラブ世界という像は完全に崩壊してしまっており、サウジは、そしてエジプトもイスラエルについており、パレスティナは敵もしくはテロリスト扱いになってしまっている。こうしたなか、パレスティナ人は、ガザ地区でイスラエルからの兵糧攻め、そしてヨルダン川西岸地区へのイスラエル人の入植活動、さらにゴラン高原の不法占拠（第３次中東戦争で占領した状態が今に至るも続いているが、元々シリア領である。 トランプがイスラエル、サウジに深く肩入れする動機に、自らの商売が露骨に関与していることも、念頭に置いておく必要がある。 Iran deal: Trump breaks with European allies over 'horrible, one-sided' nuclear agreement President says he will impose ‘highest level of economic sanctions’ on Iran as Tehran vows: ‘We won’t allow Trump to win’ Julian Borger in Washington, Saeed Kamali Dehghan in London and Oliver Holmes in Jerusalem Tue 8 May 2018 21.47 BSTFirst published on Tue 8 May 2018 20.40 BST Donald Trump has announced he will impose “the highest level of economic sanctions” on Iran, violating an international nuclear agreement and a UN resolution, breaking decisively with US allies in Europe, and potentially triggering a new crisis in the Gulf. In a statement at the White House, Trump said this decision meant that the US would “exit the Iran deal” agreed with other major powers in 2015, and warned that “any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could be strongly sanctioned”. He then signed an executive order reimposing sanctions on any foreign company that continues to do business with Iran. The order gives companies 90-day or 180-day grace periods to extract themselves from existing Iranian contacts or face punitive US measures. The Iran deal explained: what is it and why does Trump want to scrap it? Read more The leaders of the UK, France and Germany, who are also parties to the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, issued a statement soon after Trump’s declaration expressing their “regret and concern” and emphasising their “continuing commitment” to the deal. “We urge the US to ensure that the structures of the JCPOA can remain intact, and to avoid taking action which obstructs its full implementation by all other parties to the deal,” the statement said. In a separate tweet, the French president Emmanuel Macron warned: “The nuclear non-proliferation regime is at stake.” Emmanuel Macron(@EmmanuelMacron) France, Germany, and the UK regret the U.S. decision to leave the JCPOA. The nuclear non-proliferation regime is at stake. May 8, 2018 Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, said he believed the agreement could still survive if other negotiating partners defied Trump. But Rouhani warned that he has instructed the country’s atomic energy agency to prepare to restart enrichment of uranium at an industrial level in a few weeks’ time should the deal collapse completely. “This is a psychological war, we won’t allow Trump to win. I’m happy that the pesky being has left the [agreement],” the Iranian president said. In his White House remarks, Trump called the Iran agreement “a horrible one-sided deal that should never, ever have been made”. He said: “It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.” Even before Trump made his announcement at the White House, tensions were visibly rising. The Israeli military warned of “irregular activity of Iranian forces in Syria” and ordered bomb shelters to be readied in the Golan Heights. Moments after the president’s declaration, explosions were heard near Damascus and Syrian official media claimed government positions had come under Israeli air strikes. In reintroducing sanctions, Trump referred to claims by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel had documents detailing past Iranian work on nuclear weapons development. This is a psychological war, we won’t allow Trump to win. I’m happy that the pesky being has left Hassan Rouhani Netanyahu, who has been a vocal critic of the deal and called for Trump to “fix it or nix it”, said on Tuesday: “Israel fully supports President Trump’s bold decision today to reject the disastrous nuclear deal with the terrorist regime in Tehran.” He said Israel opposed the deal as it “paves Iran’s path to an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs”. The “removal of sanctions under the deal has already produced disastrous results,” Netanyahu said. “Israel thanks President Trump for his courageous leadership,” he added. Both Trump and Netanyahu are under significant domestic pressure. Trump is under scrutiny for possible collusion with Russia during the presidential election campaign, and for paying hush money to a porn actor who claims to have had sex with him. The Israeli prime minister is the subject of several police corruption inquiries. John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, said the sanctions would apply immediately to new deals, but that companies would have three or six-month grace periods to get out of existing contracts. The US Treasury issued a factsheet providing a timetable of restoration of sweeping sanctions against global companies trading or investing with Iran. Bolton said that the US would also cease to abide by the UN security council resolution that endorsed the July 2015 deal. He said: “We are not using the provisions of UNSC 2231 because we are out the of the deal.” The announcement marks a decisive break from the nuclear deal that the US agreed in July 2015 with its main European partners along with Russia, China and Iran, in which Tehran agreed to significant curbs on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. The deal was endorsed by a UN security council resolution soon afterwards. Sign up for Guardian Today US edition: the day's must-reads sent directly to you Read more Barack Obama, whose administration negotiated the deal, described Trump’s violation of the agreement as “a serious mistake”. “Without the JCPOA, the United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East,” he said in statement. Trump’s unilateral and dramatic withdrawal is likely to raise tensions rapidly in the Middle East, already inflamed by conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Much will now depend on reaction in Tehran, where hardliners have campaigned against the agreement and pressed for Iran to revive a full range of nuclear activities and throw out UN inspectors. The other parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran have said they will try to keep the deal alive, but it is far from clear that will be possible in the face of the sanctions that Trump has reintroduced, targeting companies around the world for doing business with Iran. The decision represents a rejection of repeated, concerted entreaties by Washington’s European allies to keep faith with the nuclear deal. Trump made his announcement a day after the UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson, returned home after an abortive round of last-minute lobbying for the JCPOA in Washington. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, had come to the White House in the weeks before. Their failure to sway Trump was a striking measure of how little influence Europe has on this White House, which has sided instead with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on a major strategic decision. “There is a question now about how aggressive Europe wants to be to keep the deal alive,” said Peter Harrell, a former senior state department sanctions official now at the Centre for a New American Security. “Without an active effort by the EU to keep European companies in Iran and resist US pressure, you will see big companies leaving.” Trump's decision on Iran is not as black and white as it seems Read more The JCPOA, agreed in Vienna in 2015, led to a rapid and drastic reduction in Iran’s nuclear programme. It reduced its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% to just 300lbs, far below what would be required if it attempted to make enough fissile material for a single bomb. Iran also took down about 13,000 of its centrifuges, leaving just over 5,000 of its oldest-model machines in place. It ceased all enrichment at its underground facility at Fordow, which – like other Iranian nuclear sites - was put under continuous international monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA had repeatedly confirmed that that Iran was in compliance with the restriction it had agreed to in 2015. Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned: “By withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump hastens the possibility of three disparate but similarly cataclysmic events: an Iranian war, an Iranian bomb or the implosion of the Iranian regime.” “Iran looms large over major US national security concerns including Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, cyber, energy security, terrorism, & obviously nuclear proliferation,” Sadjadpour said in a tweet. “The opportunities for direct conflict are numerous.” After announcing the abrogation of the Iran deal, Trump insisted he would press ahead with his bid to reach a nuclear agreement with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, at a summit due to take place in the coming way. He revealed that the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, was on the way to Pyongyang, apparently to finalise arrangements. ＊＊＊ Israel retaliates after Iran 'fires 20 rockets' at army in occupied Golan Heights • Israeli military says projectiles were launched from Syria • IDF says military was ‘moving’ against Iranian targets in Syria Oliver Holmes in Jerusalem Thu 10 May 2018 02.21 BSTFirst published on Wed 9 May 2018 23.46 BST Iranian forces stationed in Syria fired about 20 rockets at Israeli military positions in the Golan Heights just after midnight on Thursday, according to Israel’s army, which appeared to retaliate with multiple strikes across Syria. Iran deal: how Trump's actions could flare violence in Middle East Read more Several but not all of the Iranian rockets were intercepted by Israeli defences, an Israel Defense Forces spokesman, Lt Col Jonathan Conricus, told reporters. “At approximately 12.10, 10 minutes past midnight, forces belonging to the Iranian Quds Force fired approximately 20 projectiles – most of them are probably rockets but that is yet to be determined – towards the forward line of IDF positions in the Golan Heights,” he said. “So far we are not aware of any casualties, any IDF casualties,” he said. A preliminary assessment found there was minimal damage, he added. The attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran has fired rockets in a direct strike on Israeli forces. The occupied Golan Heights has been on high alert since Donald Trump confirmed he was pulling the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. “The IDF views this Iranian attack very severely,” Conricus said. “This event is not over.” In the early hours of Thursday morning, the IDF’s Arabic-language Twitter account said its military was “moving” against Iranian targets in Syria and warned Damascus not to intervene. Syrian state media said anti-air defences were responding to a “new wave of Israeli missiles and is dropping them one by one”. It said shells fired from Israel hit southern Syria’s Quneitra province, adjacent to the Golan Heights. There were no reported casualties. Explosions were heard in the Syrian capital as jets flew overheard. Iran did not immediately comment. Israel has warned it will not permit Tehran to establish a permanent military presence in Syria, accusing Iran of moving drones and missiles into its Arab neighbour. Iranian forces have been sent to aid the Syrian government in a devastating seven-year civil war against insurgents. Donald Trump’s move to exit the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran was welcomed by Israel but has stoked fears of a regional flare-up. Just minutes before Trump was due to speak on Tuesday, the IDF said it had identified “irregular activity of Iranian forces in Syria” and had decided to unlock and ready bomb shelters in the Golan, where it shares a frontier with Syria. “Additionally, defence systems have been deployed and IDF troops are on high alert for an attack,” it said. “The IDF is prepared for various scenarios and warns that any aggression against Israel will be met with a severe response.” Hours after Trump’s announcement, Syrian state media said that its air defences had brought down two Israeli missiles. The Syrian Observatory monitoring group, which tracks the conflict, said that attack killed 15 people, including eight Iranians. Israel did not comment on the strikes. In February, Israel said it had downed an armed Iranian drone that penetrated its airspace. Since then Israel’s air force is believed to have struck Iranian targets operating in Syria several times, including a 9 April strike on the country’s largest airbase, killing seven Iranians. Tehran has vowed revenge. The Quds Force is an external arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, which Israel’s intelligence community said was tasked with a retaliatory attack. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the biggest critics of the Iran deal and close Trump ally, told his cabinet on Sunday he was “determined to block Iran’s aggression against us even if this means a struggle”. “Better now than later,” he said. “We do not want escalation but we are prepared for any scenario.” Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, and her husband, Jared Kushner, are due to arrive in Israel in the next few days for the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem. The US president’s decision in December to recognise the city as Israel’s capital has infuriated Palestinians and reverberated across the region. The occupied Golan Heights is a plateau captured from Syria in 1967 by Israel in a move not recognised by the international community. |
