QEは賞味期限切れ
Fedは量的緩和政策を現在も続けている。これは第３弾、QE3と呼ばれている。
手口は簡単で、銀行が保有する国債やMBSを毎月大量に買い続ける、したがって銀行には現金が入る、という政策である。この目的は国債などの価格を上昇させて長期利子率を低下させ、それによって投資を喚起するというものである。
が、その効果は主に株式市場に流れ、株価の押上げには役立っているが、実体経済にはあまり効果が出ていない。これまでアメリカ経済は回復して成長してきているという「幻想」が振りまかれていたが、このところの経済停滞、とりわけ失業率や雇用の停滞のデータが公表されており、実際には依然として停滞しているというのが実情のようである。
銀行は得た資金をどう使うのかは自由である。銀行は実体経済に資金を貸すよりも、株式市場に投入しているのである。
（FedはQE政策の継続で、そのバランス・シートは膨れ上がっている。理由は単純で、貸方勘定に100億ドルの国債が入り、借方勘定に100億ドルの
支出が記帳される。このことがずっと続いているから、左右の勘定科目は膨張の一方である。ただ、このことはたいした問題ではない、Fedは自分で輪転機を回すだけ（実際にはネット上に数値を打ち込むだけのことである）なので、いくらでも回すことができる。極端なインフレが起きないかぎり、Fedにとっては痛くも痒くもない話である。）
ところでいま問題になっているのがFedがいつQE3をやめるかという点である。まもなく止めようとしている動きがあるので、アメリカのみならず世界中に大きな影響を及ぼしている。QEを止めると、長期利子率が上昇する。すると世界中から短期資本が流入してきてドル高が生じる。アメリカの貿易収支は悪化する。それにトルコなどは短期ドルで経済を運営してきているから負債額が
激増するおそれが出ている等等。こうした憶測が世界中を駆けずり回っており、Fedの動向に神経質になっているのである。
現在、アメリカが経済にたいして実施している政策はQE3だけである。財政政策は完全に予算統制法やシークェスタによりストップしたままである。
このQE３が中止すると、アメリカ経済は自分の足で歩かなければならないことになるのだが、はたしてちゃんと立って歩けるのか、というおそれがある。
（日本の場合、アベノミクスの第１の矢が「異次元の政策」といわれているこのQE政策である。しかし、大きな問題だと思うのは、現実の金利はゼロ金利ではなく異常な高金利、サラ金金利であるという点である。庶民や中小企業は銀行にゼロ金利で預金している。しかし銀行が庶民や中小企業に資金を貸し付けるときは15％前後という途方もない歴史的金利なのである。ゼロ金利という言葉に騙されてはいけない。それは銀行にわれわれが貸し付けるときの金利であって、われわれが銀行から借りるときの金利ではないのである。日本は超高金利の状況下にある。）
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Quantitative easing is past its due date
QE stimulus policy has proven ineffective in achieving the one goal crucial to the economy: creating more jobs for Americans
o Heidi Moore
o theguardian.com, Friday 6 September 2013 18.55 BST
This summer has seen three months of dismal job reports. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Is the Federal Reserve's stimulus working to help the economy, or is it hurting?
At most, it may be possible to make an argument that the stimulus known as quantitative easing is helping Wall Street stock prices, but after three years of money-pumping, QE is evidently doing nothing to bring the country to full employment, which is one of the two tasks the Fed exists to perform.
After another discouraging jobs report today, TF Markets founder and analyst Peter Tchir wrote: "If this policy is such a success why is the jobs picture not better? Why are people dropping out of the labor market? Why is there no inflation?"
Tchir's question is eminently understandable. Another sad employment report came from the bureau of labor statistics, which snaps a picture of jobs in the US every month.
What was revealed in this report was that not only was August a dismal month in which there were not enough new jobs, it was also the third bad month in a row: the summer of no jobs.
That's enough for the beginning of a trend, and it should lead to real soul-searching about two things.
The first is that the claims of a real economic recovery are still highly questionable, and the widespread delusion this year that things are broadly getting better keeps getting slammed with evidence to the contrary.
It's not just jobs: housing, which looked positive earlier, has hit the shoals of rising interest rates and Fannie Mae's national housing survey, to be released next week, "is expected to show a leveling off of positive sentiment among consumers regarding housing" according to Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan.
Many economists have accepted that the economy has slowed in 2013. Last May, 41 economists surveyed by the Philadelphia branch of the Federal Reserve expected the economy to grow by 2% this year; they conceded in August that it would likely be more like 1.5% – barely enough to be called real growth.
The realization that the economy is floundering – that it is, actually, in some kind of unresponsive fugue state that we've arbitrarily chosen to call a "recovery" – should be a spur to more congressional attention. It hasn't been, and there's no evidence that it will be.
Just as importantly, the second thing the jobs report should achieve is to spur some soul-searching about the only major stimulus in the economy for the past three years. The Fed's QE stimulus policy has prevailed so long that, even if it was a boon at first, its magic has worn off. It has proven itself ineffective in achieving the one goal crucial to the economy: getting more Americans on payrolls.
Here's the evidence. In August, the jobs picture was dismal: only 169,000 people found new jobs. That's not enough. When 12 million people are unemployed, 169,000 jobs won't change the picture.
How about the drop in the unemployment rate? Though it may look like when the unemployment rate drops to 7.3%, that's mainly smoke and mirrors. The rate dropped because only 63% of Americans are participating in the workforce, the lowest participation rate since Jimmy Carter was president in 1978.
In addition, the declamations of great job growth this summer were largely delusional. Both the June and July jobs numbers, which looked reasonably robust at the time and were greeted with much cheering, have just been revised sharply downward on a second analysis. In July, when we thought 162,000 people landed new jobs, it was only 104,000 people. Similarly, in June, when we thought it was 188,000 people newly employed, it was only 172,000 who had new jobs according the BLS numbers.
So, it's grim out there. Wallowing only gets you so far. What do we do about this?
From Capitol Hill, there's been only resounding silence except for the president's brief, largely pro-forma tour for middle-class jobs. Mind-bogglingly, the president's economic team appears to be convinced that the economy is in great shape and that they're going to have excellent reviews, which has allowed the President and Congress to avoid creating any job-creating legislation or even addressing the unemployment crisis. The fact that the White House economic team thinks highly of itself right now is on the level of George W Bush's "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" compliment to former Fema chief Michael Brown as came under criticism for his response to Hurricane Katrina. Still, there's no reason to believe that enlightenment is on the way.
So, since the Fed is the only official body trying to do anything, it's worth examining whether QE has outlived its usefulness. There is a current debate at the Fed – and among economists – about whether it's time to "taper," or reduce the central's bank's aggressive program of buying up mortgage bonds.
Talk of tapering tends to inspire panic, in the stock market at least – a special breed of bratty stock dip known as "taper tantrums". That's not surprising. QE has had the effect of boosting stocks. When the Fed starts pulling away, the stock market will have to fend for itself. That will cause either a fast, hard crash or a slow, depressing one – but it will definitely cause a (likely temporary) dip as the stock market finds its feet and learns how to walk on its own again.
The hard news is this: it's a smart idea for the Fed to taper, to start opening the door for the end of stimulus. It's not a smart idea because the economy is healthy – it isn't – but because the economy needs to come off life-support and breathe for itself.
Quantitative easing is a drug that seems to be long past its due date. After three years, the returns are in: there are likely no more benefits coming to the economy from holding down interest rates and buying up mortgage bonds.
There's even some evidence, in the eyes of analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, that quantitative easing may have caused a housing recovery that disproportionately hurt low-income people. David Dayen, writing at Naked Capitalism, summed it up:
"The analysts note that, even with mortgage rates plummeting from 7% to 4% from 2001 to 2011, 42m households experienced moderate or severe housing costs ... And renters took the brunt of this stress in the later period; by 2011, an incredible 50% of all renters were burdened by high housing costs."
So QE is not good for housing any more, and it has increased income inequality. It's not doing anything particularly great for jobs, either.
And even on Wall Street, big investors who buy bonds are running out of ideas about how to make money while the Fed forces interest rates to stay in the basement. Stocks are doing relatively well – which creates a "wealth effect" that fattens our 401ks and sends people out to the streets to do more spending – but there's something infinitely sad about spending money based on false confidence.
The Fed likely knows all of this. And that is probably why it is right to start ending the grand experiment in extended stimulus, taper off quantitative easing, and force the economy, the markets and Congress to think for themselves.
