2016年2月14日日曜日

とげとげしい雰囲気で充満 - ミュンヘン会議



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とげとげしい雰囲気で充満 - ミュンヘン会議


ミュンヘンで展開されているシリア和平に向けての交渉は、名前とは逆で、交渉国の

あいだ、つまりロシアと欧米側とのあいだの、けんもほろろに相手の見解を否定する言葉で

横溢している。

 メドヴェージェフは、「新たな冷戦状況に突入しようとしている」と述べ、欧米側は、「ロシアの

シリアでの猛爆が市民を殺傷している」と応戦している。リトアニアの代表は、「冷戦ではなく、すでにホットな

戦争状態をロシアはつくりだしている」と述べている。

 この状態で何が決められるのだろうか。もちろん当事者も分からないことだろう。

笑顔がまったくみられない舞台になっている。


***

現時点で明確になっていること、それはロシアの猛爆とイランの支援で、アサド陣営が

反アサド陣営に勝利する可能性が非常に高まっているということ、であろう。それと

アメリカの存在が非常に薄くなっており、それは反ロシア陣営内部にあっても非常な

不満となっているという点であろう。さらには、当初の共通目的であったはずの殲滅さる

べきイスラム国というのがどこかに消えてしまっている(つまりイスラム国はそれほど打撃を

受けていない)ということである。

***

Russia warns of 'new cold war' amid Syria accusations

PM Dmitry Medvedev rejects claims of civilian bombings and tells Munich conference countries need to build trust
Russia: no evidence we are bombing civilians in Syria – video
Chris Johnston and agencies

@cajuk

Saturday 13 February 2016 12.27 GMTLast modified on Saturday 13 February 201614.00 GMT

The Russian prime minister has said the world is slipping into a “new cold war” after European leaders condemned his country’s airstrikes on Syria and called on Vladimir Putin to end them as a precursor for peace negotiations.
US intelligence head warns of Isis chemical attack capability

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Dmitry Medvedev told a security conference in Munich that a lack of cooperation threatened to return the continent to “40 years ago, when a wall was standing in Europe”. He rejected the widely held belief that Russian planes had hit civilian targets in Syria.
“There is no evidence of our bombing civilians, even though everyone is accusing us of this,” he said on Saturday. “Russia is not trying to achieve some secret goals in Syria. We are simply trying to protect our national interests …
“Creating trust is hard … but we have to start. Our positions differ, but they do not differ as much as 40 years ago when a wall was standing inEurope.
“You could say even more sharply: we have fallen into a new cold war,” he said. “Nearly on a daily basis, we are being blamed for the most terrible threat to Nato as a whole, to Europe, to America, to other countries. They make scary movies where Russia starts a nuclear war. I sometimes wonder: are we in 2016 or 1962?”
Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg rejected Medvedev’s accusations: “Russia’s rhetoric, posture and exercises of its nuclear forces are aimed at intimidating its neighbours, undermining trust and stability in Europe.”
Medvedev’s French counterpart, Manuel Valls, told the conference: “To find the path to peace again, the Russian bombing of civilians has to stop.”
The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said most of Russia’s attacks had been against legitimate opposition groups in Syria.
Assad ‘deluded’ to think he can win militarily in Syria, says US – video
“This is the moment. This is a hinge point,” he said. “Decisions made in the coming days and weeks, and a few months could end the war in Syria – or could define a very difficult set of choices for the future.
“The war in Syria has now lasted for almost five years and shows no signs of burning itself out, which is why we are so focused on a political track. If the international community and the Syrians themselves miss the opportunity now before us to achieve that political resolution to the conflict [then] the violence, the bloodshed, the torture, the bombing, and the anguish will continue – so will the siren call to jihad.”
Germany’s foreign ministry said Russia’s military action had “seriously compromised” the peace process, while the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, said on Twitter: “What is important now is embracing this opportunity, stopping the airstrikes, ceasing targeting civilians and providing humanitarian access.”
Analysis Syria war cessation deal relies on something in short supply: trust

International plan led by John Kerry is not a formal ceasefire and fails to hold factions, not least pro-Assad forces, to account

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The Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, told the conference the situation was more serious than the cold war. “We are probably facing a hot war,” she said. “Russia is demonstrating open military aggression in Ukraine, open military aggression in Syria. There is nothing cold about this, it is very hot.”
Russian aircraft were seen in action over northern Syria again on Friday. Its intervention in the conflict since late September has significantly strengthened the hand of President Bashar al-Assad, who on Friday vowed to regain control of the entire country.
His comments dealt a swift blow to international efforts to secure a ceasefire, deliver aid and promote a negotiated solution to the war that has killed more than a quarter of a million civilians.
Kerry said earlier that if the peace plan agreed on Friday failed, more foreign troops could enter the conflict.
“If the Assad regime does not live up to its responsibilities, and if the Iranians and the Russians do not hold Assad to the promises that they have made ... then the international community obviously is not going to sit there like fools and watch this,” he said.
The Guardian view on Syrian peace hopes: are Russia and the US really on the same page?
Editorial: There are huge obstacles in the way of a cessation of hostilities in Syria

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Çavuşoğlu said Saudi Arabia had sent troops and fighter jets to Turkey’s Incirlik military base ahead of a possible ground invasion of Syria, but did not reveal any numbers.
“We have always emphasised the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against [Isis]. If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch an operation from the land,” he told a Turkish newspaper.
The Saudi foreign minister said his country would be “ready to participate” in ground action and reiterated a desire to see the Syrian president deposed.
“There will be no Bashar al-Assad in the future,” Adel al-Jubeir told Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. “It might take three months, it might take six months or three years – but he will no longer carry responsibility for Syria. Period.”