(トランプのプーチン批判の初めてのツイート）
(覚書) 緊迫度増すシリア情勢 --- プーチン、トランプ、そして・・・
アサドが反政府が支配する東ゴータ (ダマスカスの東で隣接) を攻撃するさいに神経ガスを用いたことで、大きな緊張が発生している。何よりも、トランプが初めてプーチンを名指しで批判する行動に出たことである。これは公式の場での発言であり（そしてその前日にはツイッターで初めてプーチンの名を出して批判をしていた）、「プーチンはその責任を負うことになるだろう。対価を支払うことになるだろう」、「1,2日以内にアメリカが同軍事的に行動するかを決めることになる」と言っている。
これにたいし、ロシア側は、「神経ガスが当地で使用された形跡はない、もしあったとしたらそれは、反アサド陣営が仕掛けた罠だ」と真っ向からアメリカの主張を否定している。
そして「もしアメリカがアサド陣営に攻撃を仕掛けるなら、深刻な事態が発生することになる」とロシアが真っ向から受けて立つ的発言をしている。きわめて緊張した事態になっている。
プーチン・ロシアは、2015年にアサド陣営を全面的に支援する方針で、軍事行動をシリアで展開し始めたが、これは、プーチンによる旧ソ連の世界への影響力を再開させるための試金石と位置づけられているものである。実際に、これにより、中東情勢において、イランとともに中心的な影響力を確保するに至っている。なので、アサド陣営にたいする武装攻撃にたいしては、ロシアは全面的に対決する姿勢を崩すことはない。
＊＊＊
シリア政府の空軍基地T4が、イスラエル軍の空爆を受けた。この基地はロシアが使っている。そしてイランもである。イスラエルは、イランを最大の敵と見ている。この襲撃に対し、ロシアはその行為を激しく批判している。
＊＊＊
中東情勢は、きわめて錯綜している。いまの中東地域において、ロシアとともに、重要な影響力をもっているのが、イランとトルコであり、しかもこれら３国は、共同して動く方針を固めている。シーア派の領袖イランは、イラク、アサド・シリアにたいし大きな軍事的影響力をすでに有している。トルコは、元々反アサドではあるが、それよりも何よりも、トルコが重大視しているのは、クルド勢力の拡大である。クルド勢力は、反アサド陣営の中核的役割を担ってきており、そしてそれを支援してきているのがアメリカという構図になる。そのため、トルコとアメリカの関係はきわめて悪化している。両国が依然としてNATO陣営であるにもかかわらず、そして大きな基地がアメリカに提供されているにもかかわらず、エルドアンはロシアとの関係を強化する行動をとっている。
そればかりではない。エルドアン・トルコは、自らをオットマン・トルコの再興的な考えを表明するような方向に向かっている。歴史的に言えば、オットマン・トルコは第一次大戦のさい、ドイツ側についたことで、敗戦国となり、そして中東支配は奪い取られることになり、オスマン・トルコは崩壊するに至った。奪い取ったのは、英仏である。いわゆるサイクス・ピコ協定である。いまの中東の線引きの元になったものである。
＊＊＊
第２次大戦後、中東情勢は長年にわたり、アラブとイスラエルとの争いによって特徴づけられてきた。４度にわたる中東戦争である。３度までは、ナセル・エジプトがアラブの主導国であり、それがイスラエルと対決するという構図であった（そしてその背後に米ソの対立があった）。だが、第４次中東戦争あたりで、エジプトはイスラエルに接近することになり、ここにアラブ対イスラエルというこれまでの対立構図から、パレスティナ対イスラエルという構図に変わり、そして現在に至っている。パレスティナはその後、パレスティナ自治政府、そしてその分裂（ヨルダン川西岸地区とガザ地区）という状況になっている。エジプト対イスラエルという構図は消え、いまではイスラエル対イランという構図の方がはるかに鮮明になっている。
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さらに、1970年代になり、石油収入をもとにしてサウジアラビア（スンニ派の領袖）が大きな影響力を中東地域にもつ事態が生じている。いまその関連で大きな問題になっているのがイエメン問題である。イエメンでのシーア派の活動が活発になり、それを抑えるためにサウジがイエメンの封鎖と爆撃を繰り返し、数百万人の住民が飢餓と伝染病で苦しめられるという事態に立ち至っている。国際的批判は続いているが、それを聞く耳をサウジはもっていないし、そしてそれを軍事的にも支えているのがアメリカであり、イギリスなのである。
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トランプは、軍事閣僚との相談を行う前に、マクロンに電話している。そしてマクロンから、いつでも軍事攻撃に出る用意はある、との返事を得ていることが分かっている。トランプは、「化学兵器の使用は非人道的で許すことのできない蛮行である」という趣旨の発言をしているが、この発言はこれまでにトランプの口からなされたことのない性質のものである。しらじらしい発言である。マクロンの発言だが、これはフランスの１つの側面を象徴するものであろう。フランスは大国として軍事的影響力を維持・拡大したいというのは、歴代大統領がもち続けているものである。それはとくにアフリカの旧植民地に対して強い。
＊＊＊
地政学的動機、宗教的動機、ナショナリズム、国連の無力、歴史的経緯、そしてご都合主義 (偽善と欺瞞)・・・これらが複雑に折り重なっている。こうした事態にたいし、何らかの理想主義でそれに対処することなどは不可能であろう。何らかのかたちでの国際的妥協により一時的に極端な緊張が抑制される、というのが現実的な望ましい姿であろう。
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トランプが特異な性格の人間であることは、この危機対処においてもつねに注意しておく必要のあることである。じつは、特別検察官ミュラーがニューヨークの検察当局と協力して、トランプの顧問弁護士の事務所を家宅捜索し、多くの重要な証拠書類を押収するということが同時に生じている。これにたいするトランプの発言は、驚くべきものである。「わが国は真の意味で危機にある」と言うものである。これはロシアとの対決の危険性のことを述べているのではない。自分の機密書類を顧問弁護士 (この弁護士は長年にわたり、トランプの黒い取引を担当してきた人物) の事務所から押収されたことにたいする怒りを、トランプはまるでアメリカ存亡の危機的な発言で表現しているのである。
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以下は、関連する３つの記事。
第１は、トランプの対ロシア軍事決断、第２は、シリア、ロシアのイスラエル批判、
第３は、トランプの顧問弁護士からの書類押収に関するもの
Trump says
Syria decision imminent as Russia warns of 'grave repercussions'
US president
meets generals to discuss options as tension between US and Russia escalate at
a UN security council session over Douma gas attack
Julian Borger in
Washington
Tue 10 Apr 2018 01.38 BSTFirst published on Mon
9 Apr 2018 23.30 BST
·
The US and
Russia moved closer to direct confrontation over Syria on Monday night as
Donald Trump said a decision was imminent on a response to a chemical weapon attack on
Saturday, and Moscow warned that any US military action would have “grave
repercussions”.
Trump met US
generals in the White House cabinet room on Monday evening to discuss how to
react to the poison gas attack in Douma,
a rebel-held suburb of Damascus, reported to have killed more than 40 people
and seriously affected hundreds.
The US and its
allies have accused the regime of Bashar al-Assad of carrying out the attack,
and Trump himself said Vladimir Putin, by backing Assad, bore some
responsibility.
Russia has claimed there was no
chemical weapons attack on Douma or, if there was, it was staged by
western-backed rebels.
We’ll be
letting you know pretty soon. Probably after the fact.
Donald Trump on his military options
“So we’re
going to make a decision tonight, or very shortly thereafter,” Trump told
reporters as he entered the meeting, accompanied by his new national security
advisor, John Bolton. “And you’ll be hearing the decision. But we can’t let
atrocities like we all witnessed ... we can’t let that happen.”
“We have a lot
of options, militarily,” the president added. “And we’ll be letting you know
pretty soon. Probably after the fact.”
The meeting
ended after less than an hour. Asked how his first day was going, Bolton
replied: “What could go wrong?”
Before meeting
the generals, Trump called Macron, who has also threatened military action if
the Syrian regime is proven to have carried out a chemical weapons attack. The
White House issued a statement saying the US and French presidents would
“continue their coordination on responding to Syria’s atrocious use of chemical
weapons on April 7”.
The sharply
escalating tensions between the US and Russia boiled over at an angry session
of the UN security council session on Monday.
The French UN
envoy, Francois Delattre, said the symptoms of the victims suggested that they
had been exposed to “a powerful neurotoxic agent, combined with chlorine to
enhance its lethal effect”. Delattre added that only Syrian forces had the
means and the motive to make such weapons and carry out such an attempt.
The US
ambassador, Nikki Haley, lashed out at Moscow for its unstinting backing of
Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian leader. She referred to Moscow as the “Russian
regime, whose hands are all covered in the blood of Syrian children”.
Trump to decide on US response to Syria gas attack
'within 48 hours'
Read more
Haley’s
Russian counterpart, Vassily Nebenzia, complained that “Russia is being
unpardonably threatened” and claimed both that Russian investigators had found
no evidence of a chemical attack in Douma, and that it had been staged by
rebels, trained in carrying out false-flag provocations by US special forces.
“There was no
chemical weapons attack,” Nebenzia told the council. “Through the relevant
channels we already conveyed to the US that armed forces under mendacious
pretext against Syria –
where, at the request of the legitimate government of a country, Russian troops
have been deployed – could lead to grave repercussions.”
A few hours
earlier, Donald Trump said his administration was on the brink of deciding its
response to the Douma attack. “We are meeting with our military and everybody
else, and we’ll be making some major decisions over the next 24 to 48 hours,”
he said at a cabinet meeting. “We are very concerned when a thing like that can
happen. This is about humanity … and it can’t be allowed to happen.”
Pressed by
reporters, Trump went further, saying: “We’ll be making that decision very
quickly, probably by the end of today. But we cannot allow atrocities like
that. Cannot allow it.”
Trump ordered
airstrikes against a Syrian airbase after a previous chemical weapons attack,
in April last year. The latest use of poison gas provoked from Trump
unprecedented direct criticism of Putin, something he had previously been at
pains to avoid.
Russia must uphold the chemical weapons convention, says UK – video
Asked if Putin
bore responsibility for the Douma attack, Trump replied: “Yeah, he may. And if
he does, it’s going to be very tough.
“Everybody is
going to pay a price,” Trump said. “He will. Everybody will.”
Addressing the
council chamber by video, the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura,
expressed concern that the Syrian conflict was becoming a threat to peace and
security far beyond the region, pointing to the major powers being drawn into
the war, and pointing to airstrikes on a Syrian
regime airbase east of Homs on Sunday, which are widely
believed to have been carried out by Israel and aimed principally at Iranian
forces there. Tehran has reported that four of its advisers were killed in the
airstrikes.
Syria provides John Bolton with first test as Trump's
national security adviser
Read more
At the
security council session, the US proposed a resolution demanding a return to an
independent UN mechanism to investigate chemical weapons attacks in Syria,
along the lines of an earlier investigative panel that Russia dissolved by
vetoing its continued work in November.
“We have
reached the moment when the world must see justice done,” Haley said. “History
will record this as the moment when the UN security council either discharged
its duty or demonstrated its utter and complete failure to protect the people
of Syria. Either way, the United States will respond.”
In his
address, Nebenzia suggested a visit to Douma by the Organisation for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) might be possible under Syrian and
Russian military protection. The UK envoy to the UN, Karen Pierce, said the
Russian proposal was “an offer worth pursuing” but she added that OPCW
inspectors would have to have complete freedom of action and of access.
＊＊＊
Syria and
Russia accuse Israel of missile attack on Assad airbase
Russian
military says Israeli F-15 warplanes carried out strikes from Lebanese airspace
Mon 9 Apr 2018 10.20 BSTFirst published on Mon
9 Apr 2018 03.16 BST
·
Israeli
warplanes bombed a Syrian regime airbase east of the city of Homs, the Russian
and Syrian militaries have said.
The Russian
military said two Israeli F-15 jets carried out the strikes from Lebanese
airspace, and that Syrian air defence systems shot down five of eight missiles
fired. Asked about the Russian statement, an Israeli military spokesman said he
had no immediate comment.
Syrian state
TV reported loud explosions near the T-4 airfield in the desert east of Homs in
the early hours of Monday. It initially reported that the attack was “most
likely” American, a claim the Pentagon has denied.
Video footage on social media in
Lebanon showed aircraft or missiles flying low over the country, apparently
heading east towards Syria. At least 14 people, mostly Iranians or members of
Iran-backed groups, were killed, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights monitoring group said.
T-4, also
known as Tiyas, halfway between Homs and the ancient ruins of Palmyra, has been
used by the Russian air force, but it is
unclear whether Russian aircraft were at the base when it came under attack.
Concerned by
the permanent stationing of Iranian-backed troops on its border, Israel has a
track record of conducting independent strikes inside Syria, largely with tacit
rather than explicit US support. It previously launched airstrikes against the
T-4 base in February, claiming
that an Iranian drone launched from the airfield had flown into Israel.
Of most
concern to Israeli military officials is what they believe are Iranian efforts
to fix advanced guidance systems to rudimentary rockets, some of which are
destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel was
dismayed by Donald Trump’s announcement last week that he intended to withdraw US troops from Syria. The Israeli
prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, regards US involvement as the best
guarantee that Iranian influence in Syria can be curbed.
Though
remaining a strong ally, senior Israeli officials have come to view the Trump administration as
chaotic and unreliable, incapable of articulating a policy in Syria. Military
officials believe that torpor in the State Department and Pentagon – where
bilateral relationships with Israel have long been strongest – and unchecked
volatility in the White House, have forced Israel to act solely in its own
interests in Syria. It insists that regime change is not a goal, and nor is
weakening the regime, unless that is caught up in the primary goal of weakening
Iran.
Aftermath of
suspected chemical attack rebel-held Douma in Syria - video
On Sunday
Trump said the Syrian regime and its backers would pay a “high price” for the
use of chemical weapons in an attack on Saturday on rebel-held Doumathat killed 42
people, but the Pentagon denied US forces were involved in Monday’s strikes.
“However, we continue to closely watch the situation and support the ongoing
diplomatic efforts to hold those who use chemical weapons, in Syria and
otherwise, accountable,” a Pentagon spokesman said.
Separately,
the White House put out an account of a telephone conversation between Trump
and Emmanuel Macron, in which the US and French presidents “agreed to exchange
information on the nature of the attacks and coordinate a strong, joint
response”.
Macron has
said chemical weapons attacks in Syria would cross a “red line” for France
and that French forces would strike if the regime was proven to have been
involved. However, the French army denied responsibility for Monday’s attack.
The UN
security council is scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss Saturday’s chemical
weapons attack in Douma.
Aid workers
and local medics described apocalyptic scenes as they
scrambled to save the survivors of Syria’s latest atrocity. Many of the dead
had had been sheltering in the basement of a building that was struck by a
projectile shortly after 7.30pm. Ill-equipped local doctors said they treated
patients for suffocation, foaming at the mouth, dilated pupils and burned eyes.
‘Most of them were going to die’: Syria aid workers
tell of apocalyptic scenes
Read more
The attack was
only the latest salvo in a massive bombardment that began on Friday night and
lasted until Sunday morning, to pressure local rebels and the opposition to
leave the city, surrounded by forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad.
On Sunday
evening an agreement was reached between rebels in Douma and the Russian
government. The local negotiation committee said fighters from the rebel group
Jaish al-Islam would be exiled to northern Syria, to areas controlled by the opposition.
Civilians who
wished to leave Douma could also depart on the buses, which began arriving in
the early hours of Monday morning.
The agreement
provides for the entry of Russian military police into Douma, supposedly as a
guarantor to ensure the Assad regime does not prosecute civilians who decide to
stay in their homes instead of being forcibly displaced. Those who stay, per
the agreement, will have their status with the Syrian regime resolved and
cannot be called for the mandatory military service for six months.
＊＊＊
Trump
decries 'attack on our country' after FBI raids his lawyer's office
Agents seize
records and communication between Michael Cohen and president, prompting
extraordinary scene at White House
Tom
McCarthy in New York
Tue 10 Apr 2018 00.22 BSTFirst published on Mon
9 Apr 2018 22.17 BST
Donald Trump declared an “attack on
our country in a true sense” was under way after FBI agents conducted a raid on
the office of his longtime personal attorney, Michael Cohen, on Monday.
The raid was
carried out after a referral from the special counsel, Robert Mueller,
to New York-based federal prosecutors, a lawyer for Cohen said. It was not
clear that the raid related to Mueller’s investigation of alleged collusion
between the Trump campaign and Russia.
Donald Trump denies knowing of $130,000 payment to
Stormy Daniels
Read more
Yet in an
extraordinary scene inside the White House late Monday, Trump connected those
dots and more, saying the raid represented part of an ongoing attack on him
engineered, he said, by “the most biased group of people” with “the biggest
conflicts of interest I’ve ever seen”.
He called it
“an attack on our country in a true sense. It’s an attack on what we all stand
for.”
Unusually
affronted by the move against a member of his inner circle, it seemed, Trump
described the raid as an extension of a conspiracy against him that had
“started right after I won the nomination”.
“It’s a
disgraceful situation, it’s a total witch hunt, I’ve been saying it for a long
time,” Trump said. Mueller’s investigation so far has produced 19 indictments
or guilty pleas.
Monday’s raid
led to the seizure of records including communications between Cohen and Trump,
Cohen’s lawyer said in a statement.
Also seized
were documents relating to a $130,000 payment Cohen has admitted making to the
porn actor Stormy Daniels, according to the
New York Times, which first reported the raid. Daniels is in a protracted legal
battle with Trump to tell the story of their alleged relationship.
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Agents also
raided a home and hotel room used by Cohen, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Stephen Ryan,
a lawyer for Cohen, released a statement that said: “Today the US Attorney’s
Office for the Southern District of New York executed a series of search
warrants and seized the privileged communications between my client, Michael
Cohen, and his clients.” He did not name Trump.
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A message left
Monday afternoon at Ryan’s firm was not returned.
Trump said the
raid on Cohen “really is now in a whole new level of unfairness”, but he did
not respond directly to questions of whether he would seek to have Mueller
dismissed.
“I think it’s
a disgrace what’s going on,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens ... Many
people have said you should fire him.”
Mueller’s
referral may indicate his team’s inquiry uncovered evidence of potential crimes
falling outside the focus of their investigation into alleged collusion between
the Trump campaign and Russia. Or the referral may have been made simply
because the New York prosecutors were better positioned to carry out the raid, explained
Neal Katyal, a supreme court lawyer who wrote the
special counsel regulations, on Twitter.
Michael Cohen. Donald Trump said the raid on his longtime lawyer was ‘a
whole new level of unfairness’. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
The
recommendation for prosecutors in Manhattan to handle the raid – as opposed to
Mueller – was made by the deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, who oversees
the special counsel investigation, Bloomberg reported.
Rosenstein has occasionally attracted Trump’s ire for
his handling of the investigation.
The president
was following news coverage of the raid closely, CNN reported. Cohen is closer
to Trump’s inner circle than anyone previously to have such a sharp brush with
prosecutors, although Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has been interviewed
by Mueller’s team, and Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, has been
interviewed by congressional investigators.
Cohen said the
payment to Daniels was “facilitated” by him personally and was not made on
behalf of the Trump campaign. A watchdog group has brought a lawsuit alleging
that the payment to Daniels was in fact an illegal campaign contribution.
“The decision
by the US attorney’s office in New York to conduct their investigation using
search warrants is completely inappropriate and unnecessary,” said Ryan in his
statement. He said Cohen had cooperated fully with government prosecutors.
Trump not considered criminal target in Mueller's
Russia inquiry – reports
Read more
Prosecutors
connected with Mueller have previously obtained email correspondence and other
documents tied to Cohen, who has worked closely with Trump for more than a
decade on particularly sensitive matters.
Those matters
included Trump’s alleged relationship with Daniels, in which a large payment
was made on the eve of the 2016 election as she was preparing to go public with
her story of an affair with Trump; and efforts to build a Trump tower in
Moscow.
Cohen was
interviewed privately in October 2017 by members of the House intelligence
committee, which has since shuttered its investigation of the Russia affair.
The FBI conducted a pre-dawn raid of the
former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s Virginia home in July 2017.
Manafort has been charged with multiple crimes including money laundering and
bank fraud, to which he has pleaded not guilty.
