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シリア危機 ロシア、イランはアサド・シリアをいかなることがあっても守ることを発表している。プーチンは、クリミア、東ウクライナにたいし、大きな支配権を確保していたが、それを超える地域としては、この中東シリアでのアサド政権擁護での介入が最も大きいものである。 （それでも、かつてのソ連圏が世界的にアメリカと覇権を争っていた冷戦期とは比べ物にならないほど小さなものである。が、プーチンの目からは、重要な橋頭保だと考えているものである。だからけっして手を放すことはないであろう。） 一方、イランだが、2003年にブッシュが偽りの理由 (大量核兵器保有・製造) で、イラク侵攻を行い、フセイン体制を崩壊に追い込んだものの、それ以降の統治においてシーア派を優先（フセインはスンニ派でシーア派を弾圧していた）したことで、結果的にイランの影響力が次第に強くなっていった。さらに逆に弾圧され、またフセインのイラク軍は解体され、職をなくす状況に陥っていたが、彼らは、折からの「アラブの春」の到来により、新たに誕生したイスラム国に参加するという状況になる。こうしたなか、シーア派の領袖たるイランはイラク政権に最大の影響力を有することになっていった（それはオバマによるアメリカ軍の撤退により一層顕著なものになっていった。 イスラム国が席巻するなか、そしてシリア戦線ではロシア、イラクによるアサド体制の擁護のなか、アメリカは反アサド、反イスラム国のスタンスをとり、結果的にその主体としてクルド族の武装勢力 (ペシュメルガなど) を支援することになった。そのなかでクルド族は広域にわたり支配勢力を拡大し、イラクの北部ではキルクーツク油田を含む一帯をクルドスタンという自治的政府を作るまでに至った。 こうした動きにきわめて警戒的な目を向けていたのがトルコである。トルコは反アサドであったが、ことクルド族の問題に至っては、こちらの方をはるかに危険視する姿勢をもっていた。それはトルコ内部にもクルド族の独立的運動が持続していたからである。したがって、クルド族を支援するアメリカにたいしては急速に対立的姿勢を示すことになっていった。 こうして、いまではロシア、イラン、トルコはそれぞれの思惑ではあるが、シリア問題のみならず、広範囲にわたる問題で協調関係を結ぶまでに至っている。トルコは古くからのNATOのメンバー国であるが、いまやその靭帯は非常に細いものになっている。 ＊＊＊ 中東情勢において、重要な勢力に、イスラエルとサウジがいる。イスラエルは、戦後からの70年間におけるいわゆる数次の中東戦争における主役で、基本的に勝者的位置にあり、 とりわけ、イランの中東での勢力の拡大（それは、レバノンのヒズボラへの支配的影響力もあり、イスラエルにとっての脅威である）にきわめて過敏であり、攻撃的である。かつては中東問題といえば、イスラエル対アラブ (中心はナセル・エジプト) であったが、第３次・第４次あたりで、エジプトの反イスラエル的存在は消失し、イスラエルと直接対峙するのは、パレスティナという構図にシフトしてしまっている (エジプトはイスラエル寄りである)。 サウジは、石油に由来する金融力を通じて、中東での勢力の拡大をスンニ派の領袖であることも活用して実行してきているから、必然的にシーア派領袖のイランとは対決する運命にある。 そしてアメリカ・トランプは、サウジ、イスラエルを全面的に支援するスタンスをみせている。 ＊＊＊ 今回のシリアでの化学兵器の使用問題で、真っ先にシリア政府への批判と、武力によるシリア攻撃を唱道するに至ったのは、イギリスとフランスである。非常に早い段階で、これがアサド政権、そしてそれを支えるプーチンにたいし、その犯行の責任を断定するまでに至っていた。マクロンはすぐにでも攻撃に出撃するような構えをみせているし、メイも劣らず、そうした姿勢でいる。 アメリカは当初、ヘイリーなどが激しいアサド、プーチン口撃を続けていたが、意外なことにトランプもそれに同調するスタンスをみせ、ツイッターで、何とプーチンの名を挙げてシリアでの化学兵器使用を「人道の名に」おいて批判するに至った。そして仏英首脳と電話会談をとり、共闘する姿勢を示す、というこれまでのトランプだと考えられない（事実、数日前までは、アメリカ軍のシリアからの撤退を表明していた。そして「シリアのことは他の国に任せればよい」的発言をしていた）行動を見せている。 トランプは昨日、「ロシアよ、準備していろよ。いますごいものを見せるから」ときわめて挑発的なツイートを発し、対応してロシア側は「シリアへの攻撃には、いかなる犠牲を払ってもそれを撃墜する」的発言をして、軍事的衝突の危機は深刻な高さに一気に駆け上がることになっている。 その後、ややトーンをダウンさせるような言葉の交信はみられたが、その程度で緊張がゆるむわけではない。双方が話し合う姿勢がみられないからである（ただし、米露のホットラインは存在しているようである）。 アメリカ側も、シリア攻撃にいつ出るのかについて協議を続けている。マチスが述べているように、一歩間違えば、コントロールのできない事態に陥る危険性はつねに存在している。 ロシア側の主張は、「シリア政府はこの戦いのすでに勝者的立場にあるのに、この際になってなぜ化学兵器攻撃をする必要があるのか。そして当地には化学兵器による被害は認められない。欧米側が攻撃を正当化する口実をもうけるために行っているのではないか」的なものである。論理的には一理ある説である。 いまの被害者は人数的には１００名前後とされている。いまイエメンでのサウジによる全面包囲では、餓死者、コレラなどの伝染病での死者が膨大な数になろうとしている。そしてこの攻撃には、イギリス、アメリカは加担を続けている。 人道的な理由をあげて、シリア攻撃をしようとしている米英仏であるが、それをまともに受け止められるような行動をこれら諸国がとっていない現実が他面で存在する。正義・不正義、人道・非人道の次元で平和に至る道などどこにも存在していない。プラクティカルで妥協的な方向での道しか存在しないように思われるが、その前に少しのことで暴発して一方が攻撃など始めると、第１次大戦のようになってしまう危険性は絶えず存在したままである。 （おまけに、アメリカの場合、トランプをめぐるロシア疑惑、ストーミー問題、ミュラーを解雇しようとするトランプの動き・・・といったトランプの個人的問題が深く密接に絡まっている、というきわめて特異な状況にある。とくにNYの検察当局によりコーエンの自宅、事務所などでの書類の大量押収は、トランプの金融的暗闇を赤裸々に示すものが当局の手に渡ったことを意味するものであり、トランプにたいする司法妨害、そして弾劾への道が急速に進展する勢いを見せている。そしてそれを必死に止めようとするトランプ側の行動・・・こうしたことが同時的に行われながら、世界ではきわめて危険な戦争への突入が懸念されているのである。）
Syria
crisis: US concerned military strike would 'escalate out of control'
James Mattis
says he is still seeking evidence in chemical weapons attack while France says
Bashar al-Assad government is responsible
Thu 12 Apr 2018 23.49 BSTFirst published on Thu
12 Apr 2018 11.03 BST
·
James Mattis,
the US defense secretary, has said Washington is still looking for evidence on
who carried out Saturday’s chemical weapons attack in Damascus and that his
main concern about a military response was how to stop it “escalating out of
control”.
Syria: Trump and May say chemical weapon use 'must not
go unchallenged' – as it happened
Read more
Donald Trump
consulted his top national security advisers on a US response but the White
House spokeswoman, Sarah Sanders, said on Thursday “no final decision has been
taken”. In a phone call with the British prime minister, Theresa May, a few
hours later, the two leaders agreed that “it was vital that the use of chemical
weapons did not go unchallenged”.
French
president Emmanuel Macron said that his government had “proof” that the
government of Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the attack, which is reported to have
killed about 50 people and affected hundreds more.
NBC and CNN
quoted US officials as saying that blood and urine samples from the victims of
Saturday’s attack showed traces of chlorine and a nerve agent, and that US
intelligence had other evidence pointing to the regime’s culpability, which
would be presented to the president.
But Mattis’s
cautious tone on Thursday echoed a morning tweet by Donald Trump that appeared
to walk back his threat of imminent action 24 hours earlier.
On
Wednesday, the president tweeted that US
missiles “will be coming” and told Russia, which has forces in Syria, to “get
ready”. But the next morning, Trump tweeted that he
“never said when an attack on Syria would take place”. An attack, the president
said “could be very soon or not so soon at all!”
Analysts said
the more measured tone suggested that the US and allies were prepared to take
longer to ready a more comprehensive attack than the US missile salvo launched
last April after a previous poison gas attack, while building pressure on Russia to rein
in the regime’s worst atrocities and accept Assad’s departure as part of a
Syrian political settlement.
At the UN, the
Russian envoy, Vassily Nebenzia, said Russia’s “immediate priority is to avert
the danger of war”.
Asked if he
was referring to a war between the United States and Russia, Nebenzia told
reporters: “We cannot exclude any possibilities unfortunately because we saw
messages that are coming from Washington. They were very bellicose.”
Mike Pompeo confirms he was interviewed by Robert
Mueller
Read more
Nebenzia
added: “The danger of escalation is higher than simply Syria because our
military are there. So the situation is very dangerous.”
In testimony
to the House armed services committee, Mattis voiced similar concerns, saying
“on a strategic level, it’s how do we keep this from escalating out of control,
if you get my drift on that.”
Mattis said he
believed chemical weapons had been used, but “we are looking for evidence” on
who was responsible. Trump has blamed Assad and Russia for backing him.
Macron, who
has repeatedly insisted that proven
use of chemical weapons in Syria was a “red line” for France, said on Thursday
that his government would decide its response “in due course”.
“We have the
proof that last week chemical weapons were used – at least chlorine – and that
they were used by the Assad regime,” Macron told a TV interviewer.
The White House says ‘no final decision has been taken’ on the US response
to the chemical attack. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
The French
president said one of his aims in Syria was to “remove the regime’s chemical
attack capabilities” once all information had been checked.
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He added:
“France will in no way allow an escalation or anything that would harm regional
stability, but we cannot allow regimes that believe they can act with impunity
to violate international law in the worst possible way.”
In London, the
cabinet emerged from a discussion on Syria, and put out a statement saying it
had agreed “that the Assad
regime has a track record of the use of chemical weapons and it is highly
likely that the regime is responsible for Saturday’s attack”.
“Cabinet agreed
on the need to take action to alleviate humanitarian distress and to deter the
further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime,” the statement from
Downing Street said.
Inspectors
from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were due
to arrive in Damascus on Thursday, but they are not due to visit the site of
the attack – until Saturday.
Mattis said
repeatedly he believed use of chemical weapons was “inexcusable” and required a
forceful response.
Q&A
What are the military options in Syria?
Show
Asked about a
legal justification for punitive strikes, he pointed to the presence of US
troops in Syria, who could be vulnerable. He said: “We don’t have to wait until
a chemical attack, when [chemical weapons] are used in the same theatre we are
operating in.”
The Kremlin
said on Thursday that Russia and the US were currently using a “deconfliction”
telephone line for Syria.
Mike Pompeo,
the CIA director and Trump’s pick for secretary of state, appeared to affirm at
his confirmation hearing reports that about 200 Russian mercenaries were killed
in a February clash with US-led forces in Syria. The deconfliction line between
the US and Russian militaries was used during that incident.
White House struggles to explain Trump's Russia missile tweet – video
Nicholas
Heras, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, says that the US and
its allies appeared to be preparing a more comprehensive assault on the sinews
of Assad powers than the single Tomahawk missile barrage against a Syrian
airbase last year.
“If you are
going to conduct a campaign that goes beyond the strike in April, you need to
plan out who does what,” Heras said. “What are the range of targets and who is
responsible for putting a bomb on them? If they are going to do saturation
strikes, they have to go after the air defences so that planes can come in to
do really specific targeting. The more planes you see in the battlespace the
more clear it will be a multiple-day deep targeted campaign.”
Israel has misjudged Russia in Syria. The consequences
could be grave
Peter Beaumont
Read more
Heras said
that the deliberative approach is also aimed at ratcheting up pressure on
Vladimir Putin, to end his unstinting support of Assad.
“They are
trying to give time for Russia to come to the conclusion that the US and France
and UK are serious,” he said. “Trump has entered his hard negotiation phase and
is personally pissed off with Putin about this. He is asking: what are you
doing to put Assad to heel and put him into retirement?”
There were
signs that Moscow was preparing for a missile strike. Satellite images released
by the Israeli company ImageSat International showed ships had been deployed
from Russia’s naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus.
Pentagon Urges Greater Caution on Imminent Strike Against Syria
Defense Secretary Jim
Mattis testified before the House Armed Services Committee on
Thursday.CreditJoshua Roberts/Reuters
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary
Jim Mattis sought on Thursday to slow down an imminent strike on Syria,
reflecting mounting concerns at the Pentagon that a concerted bombing campaign
could escalate into a wider conflict between Russia, Iran and the West.
During a closed-door
White House meeting, officials said Mr. Mattis pushed for more evidence of
President Bashar al-Assad’s role in a suspected chemical attack last weekend that would assure the world that
military action was necessary.
Despite the caution,
two Defense Department officials predicted it would be difficult to pull back
from punishing airstrikes, given President Trump’s threat on Twitter a day earlier of American missiles that “will be
coming, nice and new and ‘smart.’”
Mr. Mattis publicly
raised the warning on Thursday morning, telling the House Armed Services
Committee that retaliation must be balanced against the threat of a wider war.
“We are trying to stop
the murder of innocent people,” Mr. Mattis said. “But on a strategic level,
it’s how do we keep this from escalating out of control — if you get my drift
on that”
Hours later, after
detailing his concerns at the White House, the president’s top national
security advisers ended an afternoon meeting without a decision to attack, said
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the press secretary.
Diplomatic efforts
continued deep into the evening, with Mr. Trump agreeing in a phone call with
Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain that “it was vital that the use of
chemical weapons did not go unchallenged,” Downing Street said in a statement.
The two leaders committed to “keep working closely together on the international
response,” the statement said.
Mr. Trump was also
expected to speak on Thursday with President Emmanuel Macron of France, the
other key ally weighing military action.
Defense Department
officials said Mr. Mattis urged consideration of a wider strategy. They said he
sought to persuade allies to commit to immediate help after striking Mr.
Assad’s government in response to Saturday’s suspected chemical weapons attack on a suburb of Damascus, the capital.
Nikki R. Haley, the
United States ambassador to the United Nations, said that “we definitely have
enough proof” of a chemical weapons attack.
“But now, we just have
to be thoughtful in our action,” Ms. Haley told Andrea Mitchell of NBC News.
Military forces often boast about the awe of airstrikes
and missile launches, but what’s it like to experience their deadly shock on
the ground?
By DAVID BOTTI
on Publish DateApril 12, 2018. .
In the White House
meeting, according to three administration officials, Mr. Mattis said the
United States, Britain and France must provide convincing proof that the Syrian
government used chemical weapons to attack the rebel-held town of Douma, where
more than 40 people died and hundreds were sickened.
It was an
acknowledgment of a lesson from the Iraq war about what can go wrong after a
military assault without a plan, one senior Defense Department official said,
speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive plans. It also
sought to ensure that the United States and European allies could justify the
strike to the world in the face of withering criticism by Russia — Mr. Assad’s
most powerful partner.
“Defense officials are
right to worry about escalation,” said Kori Schake, a former national security
aide to President George W. Bush and author of a book with Mr. Mattis.
“The Russians are
heavily invested in sustaining Bashar Assad in power, have made their case as
the essential power in the Middle East, and a U.S. or allied strike would be a
reminder of how much stronger the West is than Russia,” Ms. Schake said.
Mr. Mattis also
assured House lawmakers that they would be notified before any strikes against
Syrian weapons facilities and airfields. The Pentagon alerted lawmakers before
an April 2017 cruise missile attack on Shayrat air base after a similar
chemical attack on Syrian civilians.
Before the White House
meeting, Mr. Trump told reporters he would make a decision “fairly soon” about
a strike. Earlier, in a tweet, he insisted that he
had never telegraphed the timing of an attack on Syria, which “could be very
soon or not so soon at all!”
“We’re looking very,
very seriously, very closely at that whole situation and we’ll see what
happens, folks, we’ll see what happens,” he told reporters at the White House.
フォームの始まり
フォームの終わり
“It’s too bad that the
world puts us in a position like that,” he said. “But you know, as I said this
morning, we’ve done a great job with ISIS,” Mr. Trump added. “We have just
absolutely decimated ISIS. But now we have to make some further decisions. So
they’ll be made fairly soon.”
In Paris, Mr. Macron
cited unspecified proof that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons in
Douma, and said that France was working in close coordination with the Trump
administration on the issue.
“We have proof that
last week, 10 days ago even, chemical weapons were used — at least chlorine —
and that they were used by the regime of Bashar al-Assad,” Mr. Macron said in
an interview on TF1, a French television station.
But time may be of the
essence in London, where Britain’s Parliament will return from its Easter
vacation on Monday. Although Mrs. May is under no legal obligation to consult
Parliament before ordering any military action, her predecessors have done so
in recent years.
Lawmakers from both
Mrs. May’s Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party have demanded to
be consulted before strikes.
President Trump during
a meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House on Thursday. CreditDoug
Mills/The New York Times
Germany announced that
it would not be part of any coordinated military action in Syria, even as
Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed the importance of a message from the West
that using chemical weapons “is unacceptable.”
“Germany will not take
part in possible military action — I want to make clear again that there are no
decisions,” Ms. Merkel said in Berlin.
The White House
meeting included John R. Bolton, the new national security adviser, who favored
strikes against Mr. Assad when ordered last year by Mr. Trump but opposed them
in 2013 when considered by President Barack Obama.
Even with Mr. Mattis’s
urging of caution, administration officials said it was hard to envision that
Mr. Trump would not move ahead with strikes, given that he has promised
retaliation.
“In my view, the train
has left the station,” said Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a
political risk consulting and advisory firm. “If Trump now decides not to
strike, he’s Obama 2.0 from 2013. That’s the ultimate anathema to President
Trump, and I expect him to hit Syria in the next few days.”
Mr. Trump has
previously belittled American leaders for giving the enemy advance warning of a
strike. Heeding Mr. Trump’s warning on Wednesday about an American response, Syria has moved military
aircraft to the Russian base near Latakia, and is working to protect important
weapons systems.
Russian and Iranian
forces are stationed in Syria, ostensibly to support Mr. Assad’s fight against
Islamic State extremists whom he considers part of the rebellion that has
sought to oust him in the country’s seven-year war.
The Trump
administration’s delay in acting has given the Russians and Iranians more time
to prepare for an American strike.
This month, Mr. Trump
surprised even his own advisers when he said he wanted to immediately withdraw
the estimated 2,000 American troops that are currently in Syria, where they are
focused on fighting the Islamic State. He softened that demand hours later after a National Security Council meeting,
setting a goal of bringing the troops home within a few months.
Saturday’s attack,
however, enraged the president, and he promised a decision on a response this week.
Mr. Macron also said
France would continue to push for a cease-fire at the United Nations and for
humanitarian aid for Syrian civilians to avoid what he described as “the
terrible images of crimes that we saw, with children and women who were dying by
suffocation, because they were subjected to chlorine.”
The French have
warplanes equipped with cruise missiles in Jordan and in the United Arab
Emirates, which are within striking range of Syria.
Reporting was contributed by Aurelien Breeden from Paris,
Melissa Eddy from Berlin, Stephen Castle from London and Mark Landler and
Eileen Sullivan from Washington.
***
Iran
reiterates support for Syria in face of 'foreign aggression'
Senior aide to
Iranian supreme leader visits eastern Ghouta and meets Bashar al-Assad
Saeed Kamali Dehghan Iran correspondent
Thu 12 Apr 2018 14.53 BSTLast modified on Thu
12 Apr 2018 22.01 BST
Tehran has
said that it will stand by Bashar al-Assad in the event of a US-led strike, as a senior
adviser to the Iranian supreme leader met the Syrian president in Damascus on
Thursday.
Ali Akbar
Velayati, a top foreign policy aide to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, visited eastern
Ghouta earlier in the week and rejected claims that the Syrian government was
behind Saturday’s suspected chemical attack in the town of Douma.
Velayati met
Assad in a show of defiance in the face of possible western retaliation for the
attack. “Like before, Iran will stand by Syria under any circumstances,” he said,
according to Iran’s state Irna news agency.
“For seven
years, an all-out war has been waged against the Syrian nation and its
government led directly by the US. Syria is not weaker than seven years ago,
nor is America any stronger,” he said, according to separate quotes carried by
the semi-official Fars news agency, which is affiliated to the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards.
“Trump took
stances in the immediate aftermath of his election that caught many by
surprise, but now those stances are an object of ridicule.”
According to
Irna, Assad told Velayati: “Whenever the Syrian army achieves victory in the
field, some western countries raise their voices and intensify their movements
in an attempt to change the track of events.”
Iran, which has been propping up Assad since the conflict
began, has provided the Syrian government with crucial ground support, thanks
to a combination of Hezbollah fighters, Shia volunteers from across the Middle
East and its own Revolutionary Guards.
Israel has launched countless strikes in Syria. What's
new is Russia's response
Read more
Russian and
Iranian backing has swung the conflict in Assad’s favour, at the same time as
the so-called caliphate of the Islamic State (Isis) has crumbled. Its remaining
fighters have been pushed back to a modest piece of land along the Euphrates
valley near the Iraqi border.
The post-Isis
era has also changed the dynamic of the war, however, and Israel, which is
concerned about Iran’s growing influence on its doorstep, has become more
involved militarily. An Israeli airstrike on a Syrian airbase near
Homs on Sunday killed at least seven Iranian military personnel in an incident
that Velayati vowed would not be left unanswered.
Ahead of his
meeting with Assad, he told state TV: “We will stand by Syria’s government
against any foreign aggression … Iran backs Syria in its fight against America
and the Zionist regime.”
Earlier in the
week, a senior Iranian foreign ministry official, Hossein Jabari Ansari,
strongly rejected claims that Assad was behind the chemical attack. “The Syrian
army’s use of chemicals does not seem logical since it has the upper hand in
its war against armed terrorists,” he told a Russian official in Tehran.
He said Iran
condemned any use of chemical weapons by any country or group, according to the
Tasnim news agency.
“Such
allegations by the US and some other western countries reveal a new conspiracy
against the Syrian government and people. This is an excuse for military action
against Syrians and will definitely add to the complexity of the situation in
this country and region.”
|
平井俊顕 （ひらいとしあき・経済学者・上智 大学名誉教授) 資本主義社会、市場と国家、自由と統治、自由貿易と保護主義、グローバル資本主義のゆくえ等の問題を追究することを目指しています。
