サウジ国王、ロシア訪問

• 2017/10/5(木) 午後 5:12
 
• 世界経済ウォッチング
 
• その他国際情勢

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サウジ国王、ロシア訪問 大きくは取り上げられていなかったが、読んでみると、驚くべき内容のものであった。長期にわたり、敵対関係にあったサウジとロシアが、考えられないほどの接近を遂げているというものである。国王には多数のビジネス関係者が同行しており、巨額のビジネス提携が予定されている。 　この記事から推察できることは、最近のシリア情勢が、ロシアの思う方向で展開しており、その流れは変わりそうにないということ、他方、意外なことだが、アメリカにたいする信頼は、トランプが思うのとは異なり、それほど強固なものでなくなっている、というか低下している（これは、トランプが行っているのが、イスラム国への空爆に留まってきたことにたいする不満がサウジ内にはあるようである）ということ、に由来していると思われる。 　さらに、巨大な石油産出国である両国であるが、これまでサウジとロシアはこの問題でも絶えず緊張関係におかれていた。アフガン戦争時やロシアの財政危機のさいに、サウジは意図的に産出を増産させることで、原油価格を下落させ、それにより、ソ連財政、ロシア財政を悪化させる行為をとってきた（前者はソ連体制の崩壊をもたらし、後者はロシアのデフォルト危機を招くことになった）。この２国が、いまや原油価格を引き上げるために減産の協力体制に入ろうとしているのである。 　さらには、ロシアは、トルコや、何よりもイランとも比較的良好な関係を築いてきている。このことをサウジは容認するかの行動をとっていることになり、このことは、イスラエルが大いに懸念するところである。とりわけイランが支持するレバノン南部に拠点を構えるヒズボラの立場が広く承認されることにつながるからである。 そのうえ、サウジはあれほど敵視していたシーア派の領袖をイラクから招待するという行動にも出ている。これなどは、これまでからすれば、考えられない行動である。 　これらの動きは、トランプの狭い国際戦略において、最も重要な軸であるはずのサウジが、(トランプとの相談はないことであろう)こうした行動をとったこと、さらにはトランプが最も「敬遠」してきたロシアが、いまや明確な路線を、こともあろうにサウジと結ぼうとしているのであるから、きわめて大きなショック事項となるであろう。 Saudi king's visit to Russia heralds shift in global power structures Vladimir Putin hopes first official trip by Saudi monarch to Moscow will seal powerful new alliance centred on oil and conflicts in the Gulf states Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor Thursday 5 October 2017 06.00 BST Russia will host its first visit by a Saudi monarch on Thursday, in an attempt to seal an alliance that would confirm Moscow as a major independent force in the Middle East capable of shaping worldwide oil prices and the outcome of regional conflicts such as those in Syria and Libya. With diplomatic alliances shifting across the Middle East, Moscow hopes that King Salman’s historic four-day visit will show that Moscow can forge close alliances with all the key Middle East players, including Turkey, Iran and now Saudi. Only two years ago, the idea of a Saudi monarch visiting Moscow would have seem far-fetched, as Moscow and Riyadh have opposed each other for decades on every major regional conflict, from Afghanistan to the role of the Muslim Brotherhood. Moscow flaunts might against fading Isis as it alters balance of power in Syria Read more But the two sides have decided to end their animus, and in a round of meetings will sign commercial deals, coordinate on oil prices, and discuss a potential peace settlement in Syria, including the future role of Iran, now that it seems clear that President Bashar-al Assad is not going to be deposed. As many as 100 Saudi businessmen are accompanying the King to Moscow and a £1bn joint oil investment fund is due to be agreed. The Saudis, normally heavily dependent on US goodwill and oil consumption, have tended to shy away from an ambitious foreign policy, focusing narrowly on the country’s opposition to Shia Iran. But over the past few years, increasingly wary of American reliability, the Saudis have started to diversify their diplomatic alliances, including building contacts with forces with which it had previously refused to have dealings, such as Shia figures in Iraq. In recent months, Saudi, the region’s Sunni powerhouse, has hosted Muqtada al-Sadr, the influential Shia cleric. Riyadh and Baghdad have also said they will open the Arar border crossing for the first time in 27 years. Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr on his visit to Abu Dhabi in August. Photograph: Ryan Carter/AP Much of the new activism is being driven by the king’s modernising and ambitious son, Crown Prince Mohammed Ibn Salman, the de facto orchestrator of Saudi’s high-risk foreign policy, including the military intervention in Yemen, and the trade boycott of Qatar, its onetime partner in the Gulf Co-operation Council. The change has partly been forced upon Saudi due to the successful Russian-orchestrated advance by the Assad government in Syria, and the consequent military reverses for the Saudi-backed opposition. There has been recrimination across the Gulf for the failure of the Syrian opposition and Russia’s success, with some blaming Saudi’s refusal to arm groups linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. Many Saudi commentators have expressed frustration at Donald Trump’s lack of a policy on Syria beyond the defeat of Islamic State. But Russia’s success means the diplomatic energy in Syria has shifted towards the joint Russian-Turkish-Iranian formation of four de-escalation zones in Syria, a process that Saudi now pragmatically has been forced to support. Saudis are due to stage another meeting of the Syrian opposition in Riyadh in the middle of the month in a bid to unify the Syrian opposition and restructure its political demands. At the same time, Riyadh, in common with Israel, will raise with Moscow its concern that these zones may guarantee a long-term presence for Iranian and Hezbollah troops inside Syria. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia fear that with Russian acquiescence, Iran is building a corridor of territorial control through Iraq and Syria to its powerful proxy Hezbollah on Israel’s border in South Lebanon. Russia is also hoping that today’s round of meetings will confirm closer cooperation between the two giant oil-producing nations, leading to a longer-term agreement to constrain production and prevent a further fall in oil price. Russia is not a member of the Opec oil producers cartel. But in late 2016, 24 oil-producing countries, including Saudi and Russia, agreed to reduce overall output to around 1.8m barrels per day. The deal has been extended to March 1 2018 and is aimed at reducing the global oil surplus that had led to crude oil falling to a 13-year low of under $30 a barrel last year. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, speaking in Moscow ahead of King Salman’s visit, said: “What we’ve done serves the entire global economy well” – remarks that suggest Russia would like the deal to be extended. He added: “We will look at the situation in late March. I think it is possible.” He implied that any renewal would take the deal to the end of 2018.